Introduction: The Backswing

Spatial computing, represented by AR and VR, has seen its ups and downs. The excitement and expectations that consumed 2016 and 2017 were followed by a bad hangover in 2018 and 2019. Where does that leave us now and,more importantly, where are we headed?.

Whenever this question arises, the go-to explanation is AR’s period of repentance in the “trough of disillusionment,” of Gartner’s Hype Cycle. This is a perfectly valid construct but it’s arguably overused as fodder in nearly everyconference presentation on AR and VR status.

So we’ve begun to think about industry life cycle using a different construct: that of a pendulum. Often in early-stage sectors, a pendulum metaphorically swings in one direction that represents overblown expectations, supply-side saturation and an abundance of venture funding..

Then, it swings in the other direction as a backlash to that abundance. This period is defined by sobering realizations that the technology isn’t ready, or that it’s not gaining the traction previously expected. A shakeout ensues as venture funding pulls back.

“Until AR glasses become more ubiquitous, Mobile AR is the near-term play for reach & scale.”
Artellery Intelligence

But after that backswing hits its peak, things move towards a happy medium. Markets progress at a healthy pace, while supply and demand grow in step. Just like gravity compels the pendulum to the center, market forces compel supply/demand equilibrium.

What follows is a more measured and realistic period of market growth. Previous hockey-stick growth charts give way to slower, but more reliable, industry revenue projections. ARtillery Intelligence has recently released ARi and VRii forecasts where this thinking is represented.

2 Comments

  1. Simona Halep
    09:00 AM, 20 Jun 2020

    This is where we now sit in the AR and VR sectors as we enter 2020. A long road lies ahead.

    Reply
    1. Rafael Nadal
      09:30 AM, 20 Jun 2020

      Though discouraging signals abound, such as dissolved companies, we see confidence signals. This includes revenue performance and momentum in certain sub-sectors such as AR advertising.

      Reply
  2. Maria Sharapova
    02:20 PM, 20 Jun 2020

    The outcome of Apple’s rumored AR glasses will have a large impact on industry health.

    Reply

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